DoWhy: Different estimation methods for causal inference

This is a quick introduction to the DoWhy causal inference library. We will load in a sample dataset and use different methods for estimating the causal effect of a (pre-specified)treatment variable on a (pre-specified) outcome variable.

We will see that not all estimators return the correct effect for this dataset.

First, let us add the required path for Python to find the DoWhy code and load all required packages

[1]:
%load_ext autoreload
%autoreload 2
[2]:
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import logging

import dowhy
from dowhy import CausalModel
import dowhy.datasets

Now, let us load a dataset. For simplicity, we simulate a dataset with linear relationships between common causes and treatment, and common causes and outcome.

Beta is the true causal effect.

[3]:
data = dowhy.datasets.linear_dataset(beta=10,
        num_common_causes=5,
        num_instruments = 2,
        num_treatments=1,
        num_samples=10000,
        treatment_is_binary=True,
        outcome_is_binary=False,
        stddev_treatment_noise=10)
df = data["df"]
df
[3]:
Z0 Z1 W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 v0 y
0 0.0 0.288601 1.789430 -1.309666 -0.064498 1.519606 1.349610 True 11.642969
1 0.0 0.263107 1.349760 0.579179 -0.798531 -1.097483 2.020215 False 4.051226
2 0.0 0.304251 0.022309 0.332005 0.879940 -0.566005 0.098509 True 13.375545
3 0.0 0.243891 -1.018492 0.287068 -1.305974 0.416264 1.922588 False -0.598218
4 0.0 0.025012 0.312539 -0.716019 -0.515163 0.685725 1.081365 True 9.084419
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
9995 1.0 0.782327 0.545305 -1.373108 -1.097866 0.303458 0.019584 True 3.449356
9996 1.0 0.068881 1.693558 -1.290030 -0.558590 0.670891 1.867621 False 0.384412
9997 0.0 0.590667 0.543573 -0.341562 -2.180996 0.375323 0.095392 True 3.725506
9998 0.0 0.062348 0.209702 0.004557 0.761721 1.848431 0.868799 True 15.493124
9999 1.0 0.851728 1.024809 -0.930555 -1.361882 0.670295 1.400266 True 7.442419

10000 rows × 9 columns

Note that we are using a pandas dataframe to load the data.

Identifying the causal estimand

We now input a causal graph in the DOT graph format.

[4]:
# With graph
model=CausalModel(
        data = df,
        treatment=data["treatment_name"],
        outcome=data["outcome_name"],
        graph=data["gml_graph"],
        instruments=data["instrument_names"]
        )
[5]:
model.view_model()
../_images/example_notebooks_dowhy_estimation_methods_9_0.png
[6]:
from IPython.display import Image, display
display(Image(filename="causal_model.png"))
../_images/example_notebooks_dowhy_estimation_methods_10_0.png

We get a causal graph. Now identification and estimation is done.

[7]:
identified_estimand = model.identify_effect(proceed_when_unidentifiable=True)
print(identified_estimand)
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: backdoor
Estimand expression:
  d
─────(E[y|W3,W4,W2,W0,W1])
d[v₀]
Estimand assumption 1, Unconfoundedness: If U→{v0} and U→y then P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1,U) = P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1)

### Estimand : 2
Estimand name: iv
Estimand expression:
 ⎡                              -1⎤
 ⎢    d        ⎛    d          ⎞  ⎥
E⎢─────────(y)⋅⎜─────────([v₀])⎟  ⎥
 ⎣d[Z₀  Z₁]    ⎝d[Z₀  Z₁]      ⎠  ⎦
Estimand assumption 1, As-if-random: If U→→y then ¬(U →→{Z0,Z1})
Estimand assumption 2, Exclusion: If we remove {Z0,Z1}→{v0}, then ¬({Z0,Z1}→y)

### Estimand : 3
Estimand name: frontdoor
No such variable(s) found!

Method 1: Regression

Use linear regression.

[8]:
causal_estimate_reg = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
        method_name="backdoor.linear_regression",
        test_significance=True)
print(causal_estimate_reg)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_reg.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: backdoor
Estimand expression:
  d
─────(E[y|W3,W4,W2,W0,W1])
d[v₀]
Estimand assumption 1, Unconfoundedness: If U→{v0} and U→y then P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1,U) = P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1)

## Realized estimand
b: y~v0+W3+W4+W2+W0+W1
Target units: ate

## Estimate
Mean value: 10.000546850070645
p-value: [0.]

Causal Estimate is 10.000546850070645

Method 2: Distance Matching

Define a distance metric and then use the metric to match closest points between treatment and control.

[9]:
causal_estimate_dmatch = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
                                              method_name="backdoor.distance_matching",
                                              target_units="att",
                                              method_params={'distance_metric':"minkowski", 'p':2})
print(causal_estimate_dmatch)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_dmatch.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: backdoor
Estimand expression:
  d
─────(E[y|W3,W4,W2,W0,W1])
d[v₀]
Estimand assumption 1, Unconfoundedness: If U→{v0} and U→y then P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1,U) = P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1)

## Realized estimand
b: y~v0+W3+W4+W2+W0+W1
Target units: att

## Estimate
Mean value: 10.488710795161953

Causal Estimate is 10.488710795161953

Method 3: Propensity Score Stratification

We will be using propensity scores to stratify units in the data.

[10]:
causal_estimate_strat = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
                                              method_name="backdoor.propensity_score_stratification",
                                              target_units="att")
print(causal_estimate_strat)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_strat.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: backdoor
Estimand expression:
  d
─────(E[y|W3,W4,W2,W0,W1])
d[v₀]
Estimand assumption 1, Unconfoundedness: If U→{v0} and U→y then P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1,U) = P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1)

## Realized estimand
b: y~v0+W3+W4+W2+W0+W1
Target units: att

## Estimate
Mean value: 10.070044014799482

Causal Estimate is 10.070044014799482

Method 4: Propensity Score Matching

We will be using propensity scores to match units in the data.

[11]:
causal_estimate_match = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
                                              method_name="backdoor.propensity_score_matching",
                                              target_units="atc")
print(causal_estimate_match)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_match.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: backdoor
Estimand expression:
  d
─────(E[y|W3,W4,W2,W0,W1])
d[v₀]
Estimand assumption 1, Unconfoundedness: If U→{v0} and U→y then P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1,U) = P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1)

## Realized estimand
b: y~v0+W3+W4+W2+W0+W1
Target units: atc

## Estimate
Mean value: 10.137786241214249

Causal Estimate is 10.137786241214249

Method 5: Weighting

We will be using (inverse) propensity scores to assign weights to units in the data. DoWhy supports a few different weighting schemes: 1. Vanilla Inverse Propensity Score weighting (IPS) (weighting_scheme=“ips_weight”) 2. Self-normalized IPS weighting (also known as the Hajek estimator) (weighting_scheme=“ips_normalized_weight”) 3. Stabilized IPS weighting (weighting_scheme = “ips_stabilized_weight”)

[12]:
causal_estimate_ipw = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
                                            method_name="backdoor.propensity_score_weighting",
                                            target_units = "ate",
                                            method_params={"weighting_scheme":"ips_weight"})
print(causal_estimate_ipw)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_ipw.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: backdoor
Estimand expression:
  d
─────(E[y|W3,W4,W2,W0,W1])
d[v₀]
Estimand assumption 1, Unconfoundedness: If U→{v0} and U→y then P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1,U) = P(y|v0,W3,W4,W2,W0,W1)

## Realized estimand
b: y~v0+W3+W4+W2+W0+W1
Target units: ate

## Estimate
Mean value: 10.422775987894637

Causal Estimate is 10.422775987894637

Method 6: Instrumental Variable

We will be using the Wald estimator for the provided instrumental variable.

[13]:
causal_estimate_iv = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
        method_name="iv.instrumental_variable", method_params = {'iv_instrument_name': 'Z0'})
print(causal_estimate_iv)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_iv.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: iv
Estimand expression:
 ⎡                              -1⎤
 ⎢    d        ⎛    d          ⎞  ⎥
E⎢─────────(y)⋅⎜─────────([v₀])⎟  ⎥
 ⎣d[Z₀  Z₁]    ⎝d[Z₀  Z₁]      ⎠  ⎦
Estimand assumption 1, As-if-random: If U→→y then ¬(U →→{Z0,Z1})
Estimand assumption 2, Exclusion: If we remove {Z0,Z1}→{v0}, then ¬({Z0,Z1}→y)

## Realized estimand
Realized estimand: Wald Estimator
Realized estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE
Estimand expression:
 ⎡ d    ⎤  -1⎡ d     ⎤
E⎢───(y)⎥⋅E  ⎢───(v₀)⎥
 ⎣dZ₀   ⎦    ⎣dZ₀    ⎦
Estimand assumption 1, As-if-random: If U→→y then ¬(U →→{Z0,Z1})
Estimand assumption 2, Exclusion: If we remove {Z0,Z1}→{v0}, then ¬({Z0,Z1}→y)
Estimand assumption 3, treatment_effect_homogeneity: Each unit's treatment ['v0'] is affected in the same way by common causes of ['v0'] and ['y']
Estimand assumption 4, outcome_effect_homogeneity: Each unit's outcome ['y'] is affected in the same way by common causes of ['v0'] and ['y']

Target units: ate

## Estimate
Mean value: 8.702565279967695

Causal Estimate is 8.702565279967695

Method 7: Regression Discontinuity

We will be internally converting this to an equivalent instrumental variables problem.

[14]:
causal_estimate_regdist = model.estimate_effect(identified_estimand,
        method_name="iv.regression_discontinuity",
        method_params={'rd_variable_name':'Z1',
                       'rd_threshold_value':0.5,
                       'rd_bandwidth': 0.15})
print(causal_estimate_regdist)
print("Causal Estimate is " + str(causal_estimate_regdist.value))
*** Causal Estimate ***

## Identified estimand
Estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE

### Estimand : 1
Estimand name: iv
Estimand expression:
 ⎡                              -1⎤
 ⎢    d        ⎛    d          ⎞  ⎥
E⎢─────────(y)⋅⎜─────────([v₀])⎟  ⎥
 ⎣d[Z₀  Z₁]    ⎝d[Z₀  Z₁]      ⎠  ⎦
Estimand assumption 1, As-if-random: If U→→y then ¬(U →→{Z0,Z1})
Estimand assumption 2, Exclusion: If we remove {Z0,Z1}→{v0}, then ¬({Z0,Z1}→y)

## Realized estimand
Realized estimand: Wald Estimator
Realized estimand type: EstimandType.NONPARAMETRIC_ATE
Estimand expression:
 ⎡        d            ⎤  -1⎡        d             ⎤
E⎢──────────────────(y)⎥⋅E  ⎢──────────────────(v₀)⎥
 ⎣dlocal_rd_variable   ⎦    ⎣dlocal_rd_variable    ⎦
Estimand assumption 1, As-if-random: If U→→y then ¬(U →→{Z0,Z1})
Estimand assumption 2, Exclusion: If we remove {Z0,Z1}→{v0}, then ¬({Z0,Z1}→y)
Estimand assumption 3, treatment_effect_homogeneity: Each unit's treatment ['v0'] is affected in the same way by common causes of ['v0'] and ['y']
Estimand assumption 4, outcome_effect_homogeneity: Each unit's outcome ['y'] is affected in the same way by common causes of ['v0'] and ['y']

Target units: ate

## Estimate
Mean value: 12.863447655602242

Causal Estimate is 12.863447655602242